Donald Trump Gets Good Sign From America’s Most Accurate Pollster

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is very narrowly leading Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in new polling by The New York Times/Siena College, which has been ranked as the most accurate pollster in the United States.
Democrats have seen a surge in enthusiasm and a significant boost in the polls since President Joe Biden made the unprecedented decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race on July 21, endorsing his vice president, Harris, to replace him at the top of the ticket. However, the race has remained close, with most polls showing Harris or Trump only narrowly ahead within the margin of error or tied.
The new polling from the Times/Siena shows Trump with 48 percent support and Harris with 47 percent, giving the Republican a 1-point lead over the Democrat. The poll included 1,695 voters nationwide and has a margin of error of 2.8 points, meaning the race appears to be a statistical tie.
ABC News’ polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight has ranked Times/Siena as the nation’s most accurate pollster. The ranking evaluates polling on empirical accuracy and methodological transparency, combining these two factors to score the list.
“Polling shows President Trump is dominating both nationally and in the battleground states because voters want a return to pro-America policies that actually work, not the weak, failed, and dangerously liberal policies of Comrade Kamala,” Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told Newsweek in a Sunday morning email.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign for comment via email on Sunday morning.
“The new poll underscores the risks and potential rewards, particularly facing Ms. Harris, on Tuesday night, when she and Mr. Trump will face off on ABC News. The survey found that 28 percent of likely voters said they felt they needed to know more about Ms. Harris, while only 9 percent said they needed to know more about Mr. Trump,” the Times reported regarding the survey.
Polling averages show a tight race, although most national averages have Harris narrowly in the lead. The average by the Times has Harris ahead by 2, with the Democrat at 49 percent and Trump at 47 percent. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin polling average shows Harris ahead by 3—at 49 percent compared to Trump’s 46 percent. And the average by FiveThirtyEight has Harris at 47.3 percent and Trump at 44.2 percent, a lead of 3.1 points for the Democrat.
While the national polling provides insight into how the popular vote could ultimately turn out, the presidential election is widely expected to come down to the results in several critical battleground states. The campaigns are both targeting their efforts to these states, which include Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the election by a series of narrow victories in swing states. Then in 2020, Biden led Trump by over 7 million votes nationally but only narrowly won in the critical swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The polling averages in the key battleground states for 2024 currently show a tight race.
The average by the Times has Harris very narrowly ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The candidates are tied in Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona. FiveThirtyEight’s average has Trump up in Arizona and North Carolina, while Harris leads narrowly in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Update 9/8/24 at 8:58 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Update 9/8/24 at 9:20 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Cheung.